A leading travel forecasting firm announced Tuesday that international tourism to the United States is expected to decline more sharply than previously anticipated this year, largely due to negative sentiment surrounding the Trump administration's trade policies and public statements.
Tourism Economics now projects a 9.4% decrease in international arrivals to the U.S. for the year. This is nearly double the 5% decrease they predicted at the end of February.
Earlier in the year, the firm had anticipated a strong year for inbound tourism, forecasting a 9% increase compared to 2024 figures.
However, according to Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, recent incidents involving European tourists at U.S. borders have deterred international travelers. Proposed visitors are also reportedly concerned about tariffs, President Trump's relations with Canada and Greenland, and his interactions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
"Each policy decision and every public statement seems to be a self-inflicted wound by the administration," Sacks commented. "This has a direct and measurable impact on international travel to the U.S."
This projected downturn will likely affect airlines, hotels, national parks, and other locations popular with international tourists.
Tourism Economics anticipates a 20% drop in travel from Canada alone, which will significantly impact border states such as New York and Michigan, as well as popular tourist destinations like California, Nevada, and Florida.
The U.S. Travel Association has also voiced concerns about a decrease in Canadian visitors. They estimate that even a 10% reduction could result in 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and the loss of 14,000 jobs.
Other companies in the travel industry have reported similar trends. At its annual shareholder meeting, Air Canada noted that bookings to the U.S. were down 10% for the period of April through September compared to the previous year.
Sacks now forecasts that international visitors will spend $9 billion less in the U.S. compared to 2024, despite a 9.1% increase in international tourism that year.
"The irony is that tariffs intended to correct the trade deficit are actually harming the trade balance by discouraging international travelers from visiting and spending money here," Sacks explained.
He added that international arrivals were approaching pre-pandemic (2019) levels, but now estimates that recovery to those numbers will not occur until 2029.