WASHINGTON – Amid escalating tensions, President Donald Trump is pursuing a diplomatic avenue with Iran, suggesting the nation's vulnerabilities might make them amenable to nuclear disarmament.
This renewed diplomatic endeavor aims to resolve one of the most intricate foreign policy challenges. Discussions are scheduled to commence in Oman, featuring Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East envoy, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
While advocating for a diplomatic resolution, Trump cautioned Iran about potential repercussions if negotiations falter. The complexities are heightened by Iran's nuclear advancements since Trump withdrew from the Obama-era accord, raising concerns among experts about potential U.S. military intervention.
Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary, affirmed the administration's commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
She conveyed a clear message to Iran, stating that all options remain under consideration and that Iran must align with President Trump's demands or face severe consequences.
Despite the gravity of the situation, the White House perceives favorable indicators, attributing them to recent setbacks that have weakened Tehran's negotiating position.
Iranian-backed proxy forces, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have experienced significant setbacks due to Israeli military actions. Concurrently, U.S. airstrikes targeting Houthi militants in Yemen have struck vital infrastructure, including oil refineries and missile sites.
Furthermore, Israel's strikes on Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile facilities in October, coupled with the ousting of Syrian leader Bashar Assad in December, have intensified pressure on Iran.
Years of international sanctions have exacerbated domestic challenges for Iran, prompting the U.S. Treasury Department to impose additional sanctions on entities involved in Iran's nuclear program.
Negar Mortazavi from the Center for International Policy emphasizes the significance of these developments for Iranians, who are closely monitoring the situation in Oman, hoping for a positive impact on the economy.
The success of U.S. efforts hinges on offering Iran sufficient incentives to concede to Trump's demands for a comprehensive agreement that surpasses the Obama administration's accord in preventing nuclear weapons development.
Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was restricted to a limited stockpile of uranium enriched to 3.67%. Currently, Iran possesses enough material to potentially construct multiple nuclear weapons, with some enriched up to 60%, nearing weapons-grade levels.
During the meeting in Muscat, Oman, Araghchi will represent Iran, while Witkoff will represent the United States. The format of their interactions remains uncertain.
Although Trump anticipates direct negotiations, Iranian officials insist on indirect talks mediated by Oman.
The decision to engage in discussions, announced by Trump alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has sparked surprise.
Trump has advocated for direct engagement while issuing warnings to Iran. Iran, however, has expressed skepticism regarding the value of discussions amid ongoing threats.
Following Trump's letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran rejected direct negotiations but left open the possibility of indirect dialogue.
President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's peaceful intentions, suggesting potential openness to American investment if an agreement is reached.
This stance deviates from Iran's post-2015 nuclear deal position, where U.S. companies were effectively barred from entering the country.
National security adviser Mike Waltz emphasized Trump's objective of dismantling Iran's nuclear program, encompassing enrichment, weaponization, and strategic missile initiatives.
However, Trump indicated flexibility, stating that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is the primary goal.
Witkoff hinted at the administration's willingness to consider an agreement short of complete nuclear disarmament.
Netanyahu expressed support for a diplomatic resolution akin to Libya's 2003 agreement, reflecting his hawkish stance on Iran.
The Libya accord involved Moammar Gadhafi relinquishing his clandestine nuclear program, while Iran maintains its IAEA-acknowledged program should proceed.
Trita Parsi from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft noted Trump's reluctance to endorse Netanyahu's push for the Libya model.
Parsi suggests that focusing on preventing nuclear weapons development could lead to successful negotiations, potentially elevating talks shortly.